核心概念
- p–fr–nb 三元组
- 完整的统计证据由三部分组成:p 表示统计显著性;fr 表示脆弱性,即显著性分类的稳定程度;nb 表示稳健性,即效应估计值与治疗中性点之间的几何距离。脆弱性与稳健性是两个相互独立的维度,而不是同一尺度的两端。
- 脆弱性距离(Fragility Distance,FD)
- 在双侧 Fisher 精确检验下,使 2×2 表跨越 p = 0.05 所需的最少单例编辑次数;每次编辑是向任一单元格增加一名患者或从中移除一名患者,总样本量可变。定义页面:https://fragilitymetrics.org/fragility-distance.php
- 全局脆弱性指数(Global Fragility Index,GFI)
- 在总样本量固定的条件下,使临床试验列联表的统计显著性分类发生反转所需的、在单元格之间移动的最少患者数。定义页面:https://fragilitymetrics.org/global-fragility-index.php
统计脆弱性与稳健性
- 从脆弱性指数到临床试验中的脆弱性距离Heston, T. F. (2026). From fragility index to fragility distance in clinical trials. Internet Medical Journal, 1, e22072163. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22072163脆弱性距离(FD)的定义来源。
- 全局脆弱性指数:一种与路径无关的统计脆弱性度量Heston, T. F. (2025). The global fragility index: A path-independent measure of statistical fragility. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5709162全局脆弱性指数(GFI)的定义来源。
- 稳健性指数:通过量化脆弱性超越统计显著性Heston, T. F. (2023). The robustness index: Going beyond statistical significance by quantifying fragility. Cureus, 15(8), e44397. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.44397该文提出的指标现称为样本量脆弱性乘数(SFM)。PMID 37791215。
- 百分比脆弱性指数Heston, T. F. (2023). The percent fragility index. International Journal of Scientific Research, 12(7), 9–10. https://doi.org/10.36106/ijsr/1830060
临床医学中的大型语言模型
- ChatGPT 对非创伤性胸痛患者的风险分层结果不一致Heston, T. F., & Lewis, L. M. (2024). ChatGPT provides inconsistent risk-stratification of patients with atraumatic chest pain. PLOS ONE, 19(4), e0301854. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301854
- 大型语言模型呈现出不同的人格特征Heston, T. F., & Gillette, J. (2025). Large language models demonstrate distinct personality profiles. Cureus, 17(5), e84706. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.84706PMID 40551914。
医疗与社会中的区块链
- 为什么区块链技术对医疗专业人员很重要Heston, T. F. (2017). Why blockchain technology is important for healthcare professionals. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3006389
- 基于区块链的科学研究Heston, T. F. (2017). The blockchain-based scientific study. Digital Medicine, 3(2), 66–68. https://doi.org/10.4103/digm.digm_17_17
- 以区块链解决枪支管控问题Heston, T. F. (2018). A blockchain solution to gun control. International Journal of Scientific Research, 7(3), 81–83. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8117806
- 以区块链与人工智能应对气候变化Heston, T. F. (2024). A blockchain AI solution to climate change. International Journal of Science and Research Archive, 11(2), 450–454. https://doi.org/10.30574/ijsra.2024.11.2.0471
临床医学
- 心肌梗死Heston, T. F., & Lewis, L. M. (1993). Myocardial infarction. Journal of Family Practice, 37(1), 13–14. https://faculty.washington.edu/theston/repository/paper.php?file=1993%20Myocardial%20Infarction.pdf
- 道德伤害还是职业倦怠?Heston, T. F., & Pahang, J. A. (2019). Moral injury or burnout? Southern Medical Journal, 112(9), 483. https://sma.org/southern-medical-journal/article/moral-injury-or-burnout/
全文与更多资源
- 论文全文库(含每篇论文的引用元数据)https://faculty.washington.edu/theston/repository/
- 免费在线计算器与框架文档https://fragilitymetrics.org/
- 英文索引(llms.txt)https://tomheston.com/llms.txt